Oil and natural gas sectors require special attention to be able to adequately contribute to the Hon’ble Prime Minister’s clarion call of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’

Placing a lot of policy thrust and urgency on increasing India’s domestic oil and natural gas production, the government is seeking private investment and more competition for state-run behemoths like Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL). The rhetoric that emerged out of the investors’ meet for potential investors of Discovered Small Fields (DSF) bid round-3 held recently was that the government wants more small, big, domestic and international players to step into the exploration and production sector by bidding for fields on offer under various regimes or partner with E&P PSUs.

In the meet for potential investors of Discovered Small Fields bid round-3, Additional Secretary (Exploration), Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Amar Nath, sought private investment for the sector, saying that despite the growing share of renewables, oil and gas will be relevant for India for the next two-three decades. “Energy landscape in India is going to be more vibrant in coming years as our energy demands are going to increase. India is one of the few countries where energy demand will increase and fundamental drivers of this increase will be per capita consumption of energy, which is just 1/3rd of the world average. Our population is increasing, urbanisation is increasing, industries are thriving and becoming more vibrant. All these need energy,” said Nath.

Talking about the recent push from the Government to bring in the private players in this sector, Tribhuvan Darbari, MD & CEO Texmaco Defence Systems, said that India’s output of crude oil, which is refined to produce petrol and diesel, continued to decline in November, with lower output from state-owned firms leading to a more than 2% drop. Tribhuvan Darbari further added that oil and natural gas sector plays a crucial role in Indian economy and the oil sector requires special attention to be able to adequately contribute to the Hon’ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s clarion call of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat.

In this article, we shall try to analyse the urgency of increasing India’s domestic oil and natural gas production.

Introduction

Oil and gas sector is among the eight core industries in India and plays a major role in influencing decision making for all the other important sections of the economy.

India’s economic growth is closely related to its energy demand, therefore, the need for oil and gas is projected to grow more, thereby making the sector quite conducive for investment.

The Government has adopted several policies to fulfil the increasing demand. It has allowed 100% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in many segments of the sector, including natural gas, petroleum products and refineries among others. Today, it attracts both domestic and foreign investment as attested by the presence of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and Cairn India.

According to IEA (India Energy Outlook 2021), primary energy demand is expected to nearly double to 1,123 million tonnes of oil equivalent, as the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase to USD 8.6 trillion by 2040.

Market Size

India is expected to be one of the largest contributors to non-OECD petroleum consumption growth globally. Crude Oil import rose sharply to US$ 101.4 billion in 2019-20 from US$ 70.72 billion in 2016-17.

As of September 01, 2021, the sector’s total installed provisional refinery capacity stood at 246.90 MMT and IOC emerged as the largest domestic refiner, with a capacity of 69.7 MMT.

In FY20, crude oil production in India stood at 32.2 MMT. Crude oil production stood at 4.9 MMT in FY22 (April-May 2021) and was 30.5 MMT for FY21. In FY20, crude oil import increased to 4.54 mbpd from 4.53 mbpd in FY19. Natural Gas consumption is forecast to reach 143.08 million tonnes (MT) by 2040. India’s LNG import stood at 33.68 bcm during FY20.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), consumption of natural gas in India is expected to grow by 25 billion cubic metres (bcm), registering an average annual growth of 9% until 2024.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India’s medium-term outlook for natural gas consumption remains solid due to rising infrastructure and supportive environment policies. Industrial consumers are expected to account for ~40% of India’s net demand growth. The demand is also expected to be driven by sectors such as residential, transport and energy.

India’s consumption of petroleum products grew 4.5% to 213.69 MMT during FY20 from 213.22 MMT in FY19. The total value of petroleum products exported from the country increased to US$ 35.8 billion in FY20 from US$ 34.9 billion in FY19. Export of petroleum products from India increased from 60.54 MMT in FY16 to 65.7 MMT in FY20.

Exports of petroleum products from India reached 56.8 MMT in FY21 from 60.5 MMT in FY16.

As of June 31, 2021, Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL) had the largest share (57.56% or 18,834 kms) of the country’s natural gas pipeline network (32,718 kms).

Investments

According to the data released by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade Policy (DPIIT), FDI inflows in India’s petroleum and natural gas sector stood at US$ 7.96 billion between April 2000 and June 2021.

Following are some of the major investments and developments in the oil and gas sector:

• In November 2021, Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd (ONGC) announced that it invested up to Rs. 6,000 crore (US$ ~800 million) in the petrochemicals arm—ONGC Petro Additions Ltd. (OPaL)—to meet its equity requirements.
• In November 2021, Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited have announced the launch of Model Retail Outlet Scheme and a Digital Customer Feedback Programme called Darpan@petrolpump. Three oil PSUs have joined hands to launch Model Retail Outlets to enhance service standards and amenities across their networks, which serve over 6 crore consumers every day.
• In September 2021, Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) signed a memorandum of understanding with South Delhi Municipal Corporation (SDMC) to build waste to energy plant in Delhi to fuel vehicles.
• India aims to commercialise 50% of its SPR (strategic petroleum reserves) to raise funds and build additional storage tanks to offset high oil prices.
• In July 2021, IndianOil Petronas Pvt. Ltd. announced its plan to establish a new brand for auto fuels retailing in India to further expand its business operations in the country.
• In July 2021, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) announced to establish India’s first green hydrogen plant at Mathura refinery to introduce green hydrogen activities and projects in oil and gas sector in the country.
• In July 2021, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) announced to spend Rs. 300 billion (US$ 4.03 billion) in FY22 to boost the oil & gas output.
• To expand beyond the natural gas business, in July 2021, GAIL (India) Ltd. announced to invest ~Rs. 5,000 crore (US$ 670.18 million) to establish a portfolio of renewable energy targeting a capacity of at least 1 gigawatts and build plants for both compressed biogas and ethanol.
• In July 2021, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) announced plan to establish its first-generation ethanol production plant in Telangana at an estimated investment of Rs. 1,000 crore (US$ 134.04 million).
• In July 2021, ONGC, an upstream oil company, and NTPC announced plan to expand the offshore wind energy development in India and accelerate presence in the renewable energy space.
• In June 2021, ONGC Videsh is in the process to raise US$ 525 million in overseas foreign money loans from a mixture of home and overseas lenders to repay bonds maturing in the subsequent months.
• According to government data, India’s natural gas production increased by 22.7% YoY in April 2021, as Reliance Industries Ltd. and its partner, BP plc, increased production in the KG-D6 block on the east coast.
• In February 2021, Petronet LNG announced its plans to increase in its Dahej terminal’s capacity by 29% to 22.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to meet the rising demand.
• Key Indian oil retailers such as Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum have announced plans to increase the capacity of their outlets in rural areas in 2021.
• In February 2021, ONGC announced that by May 2021, it would increase natural gas output from a KG basin block to 2.5-3 million standard cubic meters per day.
• In February 2021, the government launched key oil & gas projects in Assam, such as INDMAX Unit at Indian Oil’s Bongaigaon Refinery, Oil India Limited’s secondary tank farm at Madhuban, Dibrugarh and a ‘Gas Compressor Station’ at Hebeda Village, Makum and Tinsukia remotely from Dhemaji in Assam.
• In February 2021, the government launched key oil and gas projects such as the Ramanathapuram – Thoothukudi natural gas pipeline and Gasoline Desulphurisation Unit at Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited, Manali.
• In February 2021, IndianOil Corp. Ltd. signed a ‘statement of intent’ with Greenstat Hydrogen India Pvt. Ltd. to establish a centre of excellence for Hydrogen value chain and other related technologies such as hydrogen storage, fuel cells, etc.
• Foreign investors will have opportunities to invest in projects worth US$ 300 billion in India as the country looks to cut reliance on oil import by 10% by 2022 according to Mr. Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India.

Government Initiatives

Some of the major initiatives taken by the Government of India to promote oil and gas sector are:

• In November 2021, India announced that it will release 5 million barrels of crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserves in a concerted effort to bring down global crude oil prices. This is roughly equivalent to a day’s consumption in the country.
• In November 2021, the government has set up a committee to work out measures needed to make natural gas available to power plants at reasonably stable prices.
• In October 2021, the Union Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas approved a revised project cost of Rs. 28,026 crore (US$ 3.8 billion) to increase refining capacity–for the ongoing Numaligarh Refinery Expansion Project–from 3 mmtpa to 9 mmtpa
• In September 2021, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) announced its plan to invest over Rs. 1 lakh crore (US$ 13.66 billion), over a period of five years, to enhance petrochemical capacity and improve refining efficiency, gas proliferation, upstream oil & gas exploration and production and augment the (fuel) marketing infrastructure
• In September 2021, Indian government approved oil and gas projects worth Rs. 1 lakh crore (US$ 13.46 billion) in Northeast India. These projects are expected to be completed by 2025.
• In September 2021, India and the US agreed to expand their energy collaboration by focusing on emerging fuels. This was followed by a ministerial conference of the US-India Strategic Clean Energy Partnership (SCEP).
• In July 2021, the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) approved an order allowing 100% foreign direct investments (FDIs) under automatic route for oil and gas PSUs.
• In July 2021, the Minister for Road Transport and Highways, Mr. Nitin Gadkari inaugurated India’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility plant in Nagpur, Maharashtra.
• In July 2021, India diversified procurement for crude by announcing its first shipment from Guyana scheduled next month. This move also indicates a future roadmap for extended alliance with Guyana in the oil & gas sector.
• In June 2021, the government announced that it will auction unmonetised large oil and gas fields of state-owned ONGC and OIL to boost hydrocarbon production.
• In February 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced that the Government of India plans to invest ~Rs. 7.5 trillion (US$ 102.49 billion) on oil and gas infrastructure in the next five years.
• In Union Budget 2021, the government allocated funds worth Rs. 12,480 crore (US$ 1.71 billion) for direct benefit transfer of LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) and Rs. 1,078 crore (US$ 147.31 million) to feedstock subsidy to BCPL/Assam Gas Cracker Complex.
• In Union Budget 2021, the Finance Minister announced to provide 1 crore more LPG connections under Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) scheme.
• The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas released a draft LNG policy that aims to increase the country’s LNG re-gasification capacity from 42.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 70 mtpa by 2030 and 100 mtpa by 2040.
• The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas released an ‘Ethanol Procurement Policy’ on a long-term basis under the ‘Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme’ (October 11, 2019), which covers modalities for long-term ethanol procurement, proposed mechanisms for long-term procurement contracts, pricing methodology and other topics.
• As per Union Budget 2019-20, Indian Scheme ‘Kayakave Kailasa’, the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas has enabled SC/ST entrepreneurs in providing bulk LPG transportation. State run energy firms, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum and Indian Oil Corporation, plan to spend US$ 20 billion on refinery expansions to add units by 2022.
• The Government is planning to set up around 5,000 compressed biogas (CBG) plants by 2023.
• The Government is planning to invest US$ 2.86 billion in the upstream oil and gas production to double natural gas production to 60 bcm and drill more than 120 exploration wells by 2022.

Road Ahead

Energy demand of India is anticipated to grow faster than energy demand of all major economies on the back of continuous robust economic growth. India’s energy demand is expected to double to 1,516 Mtoe by 2035 from 753.7 Mtoe in 2017. Moreover, the country’s share in global primary energy consumption is projected to increase by two-fold by 2035.

Crude oil consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.60% to 500 million tonnes by 2040 from 221.56 million tonnes in 2017.

India’s oil demand is projected to rise at the fastest pace in the world to reach 10 million barrels per day by 2030, from 5.05 million barrel per day in 2020.

Natural Gas consumption is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 4.18% to 143.08 million tonnes by 2040 from 58.10 million tonnes in 2018.

Diesel demand in India is expected to double to 163 MT by 2029-30, with diesel and gasoline covering 58% of India’s oil demand by 2045

As per preliminary data of gasoline sales, fuel consumption in India registered growth in June 2021 and is expected to further recover by end-2021. Gasoline sales by state refiners stood at 2.12 million tonnes in June 2021, registering an increase of 5.7% YoY.

India is set to expand India’s natural gas grid to 34,500 kms by adding another 17,000 km gas pipeline. The regasification capacity of the existing 42 MMT per annum will be expanded to 61 MMT per year by the year 2022.